Publications

These technical papers from ActKnowledge by Dr. Dana Taplin, Dr. Heléne Clark, Eoin Collins and David Colby cover core components of the concept of Theory of Change and key requirements for its effective implementation. The papers are based on the extensive experience of ActKnowledge in developing and implementing Theory of change in a variety of settings across the world.

By Dr. Dana Taplin and Muamer Rasic.
This is a resource for experienced facilitators on facilitating the process of developing a Theory of Change.

By Dr. Dana Taplin and Dr. Heléne Clark.
This is a condensed basic primer covering key elements of the process of developing a Theory of Change.

This comprehensive report on Results Based Management in the funds established to support EU regional policy draws on the insights of leading thinkers on results based management, including a significant contribution by Dr. Heléne Clark, Director of Act Knowledge on Theory of Change.

This is a review by Danielle Stein and Craig Valters of the concepts and debates within ‘Theory of Change’ (ToC) material, resulting from a search and detailed analysis of available donor, agency and expert guidance documents. The review was undertaken as part of a Justice and Security Research Program (JSRP) and The Asia Foundation (TAF) collaborative project, and focuses on the field of international development.

Prepared by the National Center for Community Schools, this is a comprehensive guide on building and sustaining community schools. It includes an appendix by Dr. Heléne Clark on Theory of Change basics for community schools.

Written by Edward T. Jackson, this paper reviews cases where Theory of change has been used to good effect at various levels of the impact investing industry.

This is No. 5 in a series: the Evaluation Working Papers (EWP), which present strategic evaluation findings, lessons learned and innovative approaches and methodologies from the Evaluation Office at UNICEF.
Edited volume on country-level monitoring and evaluation systems.
Segone, M. (2010). UNICEF

Written from the perspective of program evaluation, this journal article addresses young people’s participation in evaluations of programs meant to benefit them. The authors advocate deeper and broader participation of youth in program evaluation to benefit both youth and evaluation richness; and suggest changes in program and evaluation practice needed to incorporate youth participation.
Krenichyn, K., Schaefer-McDaniel, N., Clark, H., and Zeller-Berkman, S. (2007). Children, Youth, and Environments.

Book version. This group advocates an approach to theory of change that emphasizes changes in behavior, attitudes, and knowledge in people and organizations (boundary partners); rather than such end states as poverty alleviation and reduced conflict. Outcome Mapping focuses planning, monitoring, and evaluation on targeted behaviors, actions, and relationships within a program’s sphere of influence. A corresponding change in reporting requirements would be for donors to make their recipients accountable for demonstrating that they are progressing towards impact and improving in their effectiveness, but not accountable for the impact itself. This document explains the concepts of outcomes mapping and gives detailed instructions on facilitating participatory mapping sessions, devising monitoring and evaluation plans, and on evaluation design.
Earl, S., Carden, F., Smutylo, T. (2001): International Development Research Centre. Foreword by M. Q. Patton.

LEARNING FROM CHANGE – Chapter 1
Issues and experiences in participatory monitoring and evaluation Edited by Marisol Estrella, With Jutta Blauert, Dindo Campilan, John Gaventa, Julian Gonsalves, Irenen
Guijt, Deb Johnson and Roger Ricafort Published by Intermediate Technology Publications.

Results Based Monitoring & Evaluation Toolkit. 2nd Edition, 2009. By Freer Spreckley

(130 kb, PDF file) A key question that comes up when undertaking a theory of change, is how much can, or should, the theory account for? Should it account for factors that are beyond the control of the program? Should it account for how each outcome is brought about? This article builds on the premise that how far the theory should go depends on the purpose of the theory and the availability of resources to pursue it. Therefore, one must know what they want the theory to explain and how they want to use it, to determine the appropriate scope. The scopes in increasing order detail: narrow and shallow, broad and shallow, narrow and deep, broad and deep.

(96 kb, PDF file) This article considers the value and pitfalls of Theory of Change as a tool for evaluating program design. Because the Theory of Change approach carefully scrutinizes program design it can unearth both positives and negatives about a program to its stakeholders.

(114 kb, PDF file) Many individuals are interested in Theory of Change as a tool for teambuilding. In this article, we explain why Theory of Change’s participatory process is a great complement but not a substitute or tool for teambuilding.

A detailed sample Theory of Change for school readiness in an imaginary Pennsylvania city. Outcomes Framework only.
ActKnowledge (2006).

The Media Justice Fund of the Funding Exchange: Looking at the Past, Thinking about the Future Final Evaluation Report
Written by Catherine Borgman-Arboleda for The Funding Exchange
With thanks to ActKnowledge staff Helene Clark, Kira Krenichyn and Dana Taplin for their help with the evaluation design, analysis and editing of the final report.

Evaluation of the Funding Exchange’s Media Justice Fund (MJF), established with seed support from the Ford Foundation. Offering grants to thousands of social change grassroots organizations the Funding Exchange believed that a media justice fund would enable the development of media and communications systems that advance social justice. By prioritizing the engagement of social justice constituencies with media policy issues, MJF sought to build the infrastructure and capacity of fledgling media justice actors.

A practical guide to methods and tools that can help strengthen the movement to advance media justice planning and evaluation for media activists.
Dichter, A., Kulick, R., Borgman-Arboleda, C., Clark, H. Center for Media Action. Undated.

Discussion of a monitoring and evaluation framework devised for a rural development program in several Latin American countries. The framework hews to the tenets of Outcomes Mapping, in which the theory of change focuses on how a program will affect its “boundary partners”, and to those of Developmental Evaluation, as advanced by M. Q. Patton.
Guijt, I. (2009). Programa Dinámicas Territoriales Rurales

Most significant change is a participatory monitoring and evaluation method that emphasizes telling stories and systematically reflecting on change; and which eschews indicators, particularly quantitative indicators.
Davies, R. and Dart, J. (2004).

White paper by the California Endowment on approaches to evaluation of policy and advocacy activities, where outcomes are far in the future. Among the recommendations are to focus on how activities are expected to produce long-term outcomes, on capacity change, on organizational learning as an overarching goal, and on contribution over attribution.
Guthrie, K., Louie, J., David, T., and Foster, C. C. (2005). The California Endowment.

A brief summary prepared by this colleague of Michael Quinn Patton for the Methods Market May 2010 Conference, “Evaluation Revisited: improving the quality of evaluative practice by embracing complexity.” Unlike theories of change and logic models, the author argues that innovative social change efforts do not follow linear paths and need different evaluative approaches. “Social innovators operate in a disorderly and uncertain world characterized by complex, nonlinear dynamics.” Mainly, developmental evaluation relies upon trust between evaluator and evaluand.
Wilson-Grau, R. (2010).

Communities-in-Schools involves bringing community members and resources into schools to provide students with additional support. This evaluation used randomized controlled trials and found modest but consistent improvements on key indicators.
ICF International (2010)

The New York municipal government is in the midst of an aggressive tree planting program, including street trees. Residents can request trees; the city also plants trees along streets absent requests from property owners. Tree planting has increased written correspondence on the part of abuttors with the responsible municipal agencies. Public reactions to this large scale municipal planting are related to the dual public and private nature of the sidewalk, issues of territoriality, responsibility, aesthetics and place attachment.

This study describes the results of content and spatial analysis of the correspondence. Qualitative analysis of the correspondence revealed public perceptions and concerns related to the MillionTreesNYC program. Spatial analysis explored the relationship between the planting locations of new street trees and the locations of the citizen correspondence.
Rae, R., Simon, G. and Braden, J. (2010). Cities and the Environment 3(1).

(Book version) This group advocates an approach to theory of change that emphasizes changes in behavior, attitudes, and knowledge in people and organizations (boundary partners); rather than such end states as poverty alleviation and reduced conflict. Outcome Mapping focuses planning, monitoring, and evaluation on targeted behaviors, actions, and relationships within a program’s sphere of influence. A corresponding change in reporting requirements would be for donors to make their recipients accountable for demonstrating that they are progressing towards impact and improving in their effectiveness, but not accountable for the impact itself. This document explains the concepts of outcomes mapping and gives detailed instructions on facilitating participatory mapping sessions, devising monitoring and evaluation plans, and on evaluation design.
Earl, S., Carden, F., Smutylo, T. (2001): International Development Research Centre. Foreword by M. Q. Patton.

1. Non-traditional jobs, such as electrical, plumbing, carpentry, building management provide better wages and more opportunities for upward mobility and are more likely to have unions. Therefore, job stability and good wages are more likely if women are trained in these areas.
2. Women who have been through domestic abuse need more than job training to move to economic stability. They need to develop coping skills, workplace behaviors, and have child care available. They also need to be able to manage crises in their lives and such events as court appearances and dealing with the foster care system. If these aspects of their lives are not taken into account, any job training will not likely lead to permanent employment.

This guided example walks you through the steps and processes leading up to and incorporated in creating a Theory of Change.

Project Superwomen was a program. Theories of Change are often used for single programs like this, however, one strength of the Theory of Change approach is that it can be used for initiatives that may comprise many programs and partners. For the purposes of a tutorial to convey the basic processes and concepts of Theory of Change, this guided example focuses on just a single program.